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How to Predict the Candidate’s Success on the Job
Wouldn’t it be wonderful if success on the job could be predicted and bad hires could be avoided all together? The truth is, there are some things that hiring managers can do to forecast the candidate’s future success, but it takes some planning to know what to look for during the interview. Let’s begin with the job analysis.
1. Conduct a job analysis
The purpose of a job analysis is to gather and organize information about the job that you are preparing to fill. The information you gather will be used to prepare a detailed job description, determine pay rate, and help you decide on training needs, as well as summarize expectations for successfully handling the job. As you prepare to conduct a formal job analysis you will want to be sure to avoid some of the major weaknesses along the way that include:
 Asking or requiring an untrained person to conduct the analysis.
Not allowing enough time to complete the task.
Using an unreliable process to collect data.
Failure to involve the incumbent in providing information.
Not getting upper management’s support in a commitment of resources to complete the analysis.
If you decide to conduct an informal job analysis, you can start with an existing job description. If there is no job description, you will need to conduct a formal job analysis as discussed above. The other alternative would be to find job descriptions on-line or get them from another company and select the job duties that are the same as those you require and then draft a job description from scratch.
Now, you may be thinking, “Why bother with these things?” The answer is this: If you hope to predict the success of candidates on the job, you have to get organized up front and have a clear picture in your mind and on paper of exactly what you expect the new hire to do. If you are unsure, or don’t know what you want, it will be impossible for the new employee to meet your expectations. And you won’t have to worry about predicting success because they won’t stay with you long enough for you to find out.
2. Prepare a list of job-related criteria
After you have completed the job analysis you will be able to prepare a list of job-related criteria. These are the skills and qualities that a successful candidate must possess in order to meet the specific requirements of the job. This list should include “technical” requirements as well as non-cognitive criteria such as leadership capabilities, interpersonal skills, objectivity in decision-making, and skills in problem solving, etc. For non-exempt positions you may have criteria such as: computer skills, people skills, organized thinking and ability to get along well with others. Once you have identified the criteria against which you will measure candidates, you are ready for the next step.
3. Develop questions that are related to the job criteria
As you decide which questions you will be asking for each position, think in terms of which questions will elicit the information you need as related to each criterion. What you hear will not only help you make a hiring decision, but it will also help you predict future success on the job. For example, if you want to find out if the candidate has a good attitude you might include questions such as:
Tell me about a time when your attitude at work was not where you thought it should be.
Give me an example of a time when you had to face a work-related disappointment?
Tell me about a time where you were rated less than you thought you should have been rated on your performance evaluation.
On a scale of one to ten, on average where is your attitude on a daily basis?
If you wanted to test the ability to take initiative you might ask:
Give me an example of a time when you reached out for more responsibility.
What does it take to challenge you?
Tell me about a time when you surpassed expectations by going the “extra mile.”
These are just two examples of questions that you can ask that will help you measure the candidate against your criteria.
4. Develop a simple candidate rating form so that you can quickly and easily evaluate each candidate against your specific job criteria. The form should include:
<br><br>
The job title.
The candidate’s name.
Date of the interview.
A list of the job-related criteria.
The specific things you are looking for as you evaluate the candidate against the job criteria. For example, if creativity is one of your criteria you may be looking for examples of creative endeavors on behalf of the candidate in the area of chemical or structural engineering, or drafting or CAD design. You will probe for specific examples to support his or her claim of being a creative individual.
Room for recording notes.
A rating system which can be as simple as P for a positive rating, A for an average rating, and N for a negative rating. Or, you might assign point values to candidates as you rate them against each criterion. Your rating scale could be one to three or one to five.
5. Don’t forget that past behavior is a predictor of future behavior. The more recent the past the more reliable the information.
This point is critical for predicting success on the job. Therefore, you will be asking for examples from the candidates’ recent past that show you that they can do what they claim. Many hiring managers find themselves short on information about the candidate because they don’t ask behavior-based questions that delve into the past. Instead, they ask hypothetical questions which in effect, invite candidates to fabricate their answers. Some hiring managers limit their questioning to what’s on the surface and they never attempt to probe deeper for the reasons behind the candidates’ decisions and actions.
Aside from being job-related and tied to the requirements of the position, behavior-based questions target past performance by asking the candidate to provide specific examples to support general statements. For example, if the candidate says: “I’m good with customers,” a good behavior-based question would be: “Can you give me an example of a time when you had to work with a difficult customer and succeeded?” With this question you are asking the candidate to tell you about something he or she did in the past. Keep in mind, that something that a candidate did in reference to a difficult customer when working as a 16-year-old cashier in a fast food restaurant, would not be as relevant as an example that took place when the candidate, after 25 years of management experience, handled a tense problem situation.
Take the time to develop a cross-section of questions that are behavior-based before you start interviewing. Select criteria that you want to explore which is relevant to the position you want to fill and ask questions that will encourage candidates to discuss examples of those traits. Look for consistency, as that is where predictability will be the highest. You will find that you feel much more comfortable and in control, and the candidate will also be more at ease.
6. Remember that the behavior that you are observing during the interview represents the candidate at his or her best.
If you are not happy with what you are seeing and hearing, it’s not going to get any better. A candidate who is dressed inappropriately or who has a difficult time answering your questions should raise a “red flag” in your mind. As you evaluate each candidate, recognize that he is putting his best foot forward. If that effort is not good enough, keep looking until you are satisfied that the individual you choose is the best person for the job.
In conclusion, there are a number of things that hiring managers can do to predict success of candidates on the job. However, it takes time and commitment to complete these tasks. Some managers would rather not bother. When you get off to a rocky start during the job interview, or fail to properly prepare, it will be nearly impossible for you to predict the success of a new hire. If this kind of forecast is important to you, as it should be, you will have to take the time to get the information that you need to make a good decision. It’s that simple.
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